The well-known commandment from Genesis to “multiply and replenish the earth” is interpreted by Christians as a mandate to procreate. In the 1960’s, studies comparing childbearing among Catholics, Jews, and Protestants found that Catholics had the highest childbearing rates, followed by Protestants, and Jews. However, later studies observed a sharp decline in Catholic childbearing rates, likely due to increasing secularization.
To better understand these changes in childbearing (in the absence of corresponding changes in doctrine), researchers have looked at other variables such as religious commitment and belief to understand the nuances observed in the data. In fact, “more recent work on religion and childbearing has observed that religious traditions and affiliations seem to matter less and less in predicting fertility behavior compared to religious commitment” (p. 5).
To what extent are fertility rates declining in specific Christian groups? Are there other components of religious practice that provide a better yardstick for predicting future fertility rates? To answer these questions, the present study used representative data collected in the General Social Survey between 1972-2016. The cohort of interest were men and women aged 45 and older (who had likely completed their childbearing), with a sample size of 29,683. This study compared childbearing trends across three Christian religious traditions (mainline and conservative Protestants and Catholics) and observed the effect of church attendance and Biblical literalism on fertility rates.
Variables of interest included the total number of children born to respondents, religious affiliation, frequency of church attendance, belief in Biblical literalism (i.e., “the Bible is to be taken literally, word for word”), gender, race/ethnicity, marital status, education, age, and birth cohort. The authors clarified that the direction of influence matters: religious belief influences childbearing, not vice versa. Religious characteristics remain stable over time and have typically solidified by the teens or early 20’s.
According to the researchers, “within the past hundred years, higher rates of fertility were initially observed among Catholics and conservative Protestant groups compared to mainline Protestants” (p. 2). However, the current study found a new trend: conservative Protestants are experiencing “faster-than-average declines in fertility” (p. 1), and they “may [eventually] decline below that of other Americans if trends continue” (p. 22).
Could this new trend be a result of differing religious commitment and Biblical belief among these groups? Although the study found that “monthly church attendance and Biblical literalism are associated with slower than average declines in fertility” (p. 1), this did not hold true for conservative Protestants. Biblical literalism’s influence on fertility was indistinguishable among groups.
“Religious commitment and belief, in other words, seem to matter for most in terms of maintaining higher fertility, but conservative Protestant childbearing seems to be declining regardless of their commitment” (p. 21).
Key takeaway: childbearing has been declining across Christian denominations, including Catholics. Frequent church attendance and belief in Biblical literalism are associated with increased fertility for Catholics and mainline Protestants. If trends continue for conservative Protestants, their fertility will likely decline below that of other Americans.“Religious commitment has likely become a more salient cultural indicator of traditionalism and fertility for mainline Protestants and Catholics; just the opposite for conservative Protestants” (p. 24).
Citation: Perry, S. L., & Schleifer, C. (2019). Are the faithful becoming less fruitful? The decline of conservative protestant fertility and the growing importance of religious practice and belief in childbearing in the US. Social Science Research, 78, 137-155.
©Jennie Dilworth, Ph.D